- BEST IN STATE -

We’re all in on NC State football this season; Pack starts No. 1 in our FBS rankings

Wolfpack tops our preseason Best In State FBS rankings

Eric Lusk

Published

August 15, 2023

NC State has been picked behind North Carolina in every major media and coaches preseason poll. We'll step out on a limb and pick the Wolfpack ahead of the Tar Heels – and every other FBS team in our state – to start this season. (Photo by William Howard/Icon Sportswire).

We haven’t found a preseason media poll where NC State football ranks ahead of North Carolina.

We’ll step out on a limb and be the rare (only?) outlet that puts the Wolfpack in front of the Tar Heels heading into the 2023 season.

Introducing the inaugural NC Football News Best In State FBS Power Rankings, where we’ll track the fortunes of the seven Old North State schools that compete at the highest level of NCAA football. (Note: these are different rankings than our Best In State Fabulous 15 Poll which takes into account all 35 of the state’s colleges and universities that play football and uses a different criteria – that preseason list will appear soon!).

So why NC State at the top?

Why not North Carolina, which has been picked ahead of the Wolfpack in every major preseason magazine, the Associated Press Top 25 poll (released Monday), the FBS coaches poll and the ACC media poll?

We know we’re going against the grain here, but there is something about the collective package of this year’s team that puts the Pack a step ahead of, well, the pack in our state.

Some particulars that stand out:

**NC State players loaded up on preseason watch list accolades. (Graphic courtesy of GoPack.com/NC State University athletics).**

Dependable defense. Promise under center. Exceptional special teams. Toughness. Culture. Perseverance. Favorable schedule. Recent success against state rivals like UNC. Coaching. Stability in the midst of the whirlwind environment that is today’s college football. Home-field advantage. Talent (for evidence see the graphic at right, posted by NC State sports media noting all of the players on national preseason watch lists – an impressive collection).

Coach Dave Doeren enters his 11^th season in charge of the NC State program, and while many of the names change in Wolfpack red and white from year to year, the results have been steady and positive. He is this era’s version of Dick Sheridan – excellence done the right way.

Under Doeren, NC State has won nine games in three different seasons and eight games three more. There have been only two losing campaigns – 3-9 in his debut in 2013 and 4-8 in 2019.

Bringing quarterback transfer Brennan Armstrong into the program from Virginia might be the essential final piece in the quest for going from good-to-great. The left-hander reunites with former offensive coordinator Robert Anae, who tutored Armstrong during his best season with the Cavaliers in 2021 (4,449 passing yards, 31 passing touchdowns, 251 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns).

The Pack returns seven offensive starters and boasts two of the ACC’s top defenders in Payton Wilson (linebacker) and Aydan White (cornerback). They replace a Groza Award winning kicker (Christopher Dunn) with a former Groza semifinalist, Brayden Narveson.

Even the long snapper, Joe Shimko, has All-ACC and All-American pedigree,

Fanfare surrounding NC State has been somewhat muted outside of Raleigh. Yes, the Wolfpack was picked fourth in the 14-team ACC. But the rival Tar Heels have been getting splashier headlines around the state, while Clemson and Florida State have dominated the national conversation.

That may suit Doeren and the Wolfpack just fine.

“Doeren does his best when under the radar, and they could even top last year’s win total and be a darkhorse ACC contender with four winnable ACC road games,” college analyst Phil Steele said his preseason preview magazine.

We agree, and while everyone seems to be leaning heavy on UNC ahead of NC State, we’ll go with the darkhorse and pick the Pack to start the season at No. 1.

Here are the complete Best In State FBS Power Rankings, followed by a best case-worst case for each school:

Best In State FBS Power Rankings

1. NC State Wolfpack (8-5 in 2022)

**Our preseason FBS statewide power rankings have NC State on top for starters. Look for this poll to be updated each week during the season.**

Best Case: Armstrong and Anae work the same magic they did in 2021, the defense proves stingy enough to claw past Notre Dame early in the season for momentum and the Pack pushes Clemson and Florida State (who is not on the schedule) for a spot in the ACC title game,

Worst Case: Injuries plague the team once again, Armstrong looks more like the 2022 version of himself, the Pack loses close games to rivals like Duke, Wake and Carolina, and feels fortunate to get to a bowl at 6-6 or 7-5.

2. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-5 in 2022)

Best Case: Drake Maye dazzles his way onto the Heisman stage in New York, the offensive line gives their star QB plenty of time to make things happen, the running game gets untracked to take the heat off Maye and the defense rises up in enough instances to give the Heels a 10-plus win season and repeat chance at the ACC title game.

Worst Case: The offensive line can’t protect Maye, Tez Walker doesn’t win his eligibility appeal, the playmakers brought in to replace guys like Josh Downs don’t live up to the hype, the defense still can’t stop anybody and the Heels open 1-3 or 0-4 against South Carolina, Appalachian State, Minnesota and Pitt, leading to all sorts of chaos in Chapel Hill.

3. Duke Blue Devils (9-4 in 2022)

Best Case: Mike Elko’s 2022 Coach of the Year season doesn’t prove a fluke, quarterback Riley Leonard outshines Maye and Florida State’s Jordan Travis for ACC MVP honors, experienced offensive and defensive lines live up to preseason billing, the Devils stun Clemson in the opener at home and keep rolling to another 9-plus win campaign, flirting with an ACC title game appearance.

Worst Case: The Clemson game goes badly, the tougher-than-2022 schedule overwhelms the team (Notre Dame, NC State, Florida State, North Carolina, Pitt among the opposition this season) and the Devils struggle to scratch out six wins for a bowl berth.

(Another “worst case” scenario for a Duke fan might be that the best case scenario unfolds and a Big Ten or SEC program pays big time money to woo Elko away from Durham after only two seasons).

4. Wake Forest (8-5 in 2022)

Best Case: Mitch Griffis runs the Wake Forest “mesh” offense with the same precision as his predecessor Sam Hartman, the Deacs roll through a manageable early season schedule and head to Clemson 4-0, Wake continues its home mastery over Florida State and NC State, the Deacs upset Notre Dame in the Sam Hartman bowl in November and coach Dave Clawson once again is congratulated for another overachieving season in the top third of the ACC.

Worst Case: Inexperience at several positions catches up to the Deacs, opposing defenses start figuring out how to stop the mesh and other unfortunate events (like losing star receiver Donavon Greene to injury in preseason camp) keep the team from bowling.

5. East Carolina Pirates (8-5 in 2022)

Best Case: One of the most inexperienced rosters in FBS gels quickly, a new wide receiver corps steps up to help a first-year starter at quarterback, the Pirates keep winning turnover battles and coach Mike Houston earns coach of the year in the new-look American Athletic Conference as ECU asserts itself as one of the new heavies in the league.

Worst Case: The inexperienced Pirates (121st out of 133 teams in “experience points” returning per analyst Phil Steele) can’t put the pieces together, a tough midseason schedule that includes conference favorites SMU, UTSA and Tulane overwhelms the team, and the program takes a step backward in Houston’s fifth year.

6. Appalachian State (6-6 in 2022)

Best Case: A revamped coaching staff and defensive unit comes together, a powerful offensive line propels the running game, a steady quarterback emerges to replace Chase Brice, ASU defends its home turf better than last season (three losses) and the Mountaineers find their footing again, contending for the Sun Belt title, after missing out on a bowl for the first time in seven seasons.

Worst case: The defense still can’t stop the big plays, another late-season swoon happens like 2022 (three losses in last four games) and Appalachian State suffers a rare second season in a row without a post-season trip.

7. Charlotte 49ers (3-9 in 2022)

Best Case: The bevy of transfers from bigger-named schools make an immediate positive impact, the new culture brought by coach Biff Poggi takes hold quickly, the offensive and defensive lines show Power 5 quality, and Poggi smokes a gigantic cigar while preparing for a bowl game in December, all the while mocking the media members and pundits (like us) who picked Charlotte to finish last.

Worst Case: The massive transfer portal overall doesn’t take hold as hoped, Charlotte struggles against a grueling non-conference (Florida, Maryland) and conference schedule, and Poggi only gets asked three questions again next season at AAC media days after bottoming out in 2023.