Football pundits use all kinds of metrics when evaluating teams for rankings.
Roster composition. On-field performance, past and present. Number of stars in a recruiting class. Experience. Coaching prowess. Conference prestige.
We here at North Carolina Football News employ a special metric when compiling our unique statewide college football ranking that we call the Fabulous 15 — the “Specialness” Factor.
In other words, as we evaluate our 34 college programs to compile one set of “All-North Carolina” team rankings, we’re constantly asking ourselves, “Which teams are having the most special seasons? Who’s making the biggest splash within their own division of play? Who’s garnering the biggest, boldest, most impressive headlines for all the right reasons?”
The schools that are basking in this “specialness” fill the top of our Fabulous 15 list, even if they compete at one of the “lower” levels, such as NCAA Division II, III or NAIA, and wouldn’t win a head-to-head match-up with an upper division opponent.
Make sense?
The North Carolina Football News Fabulous 15 is back for another run in 2024. And before we introduce the preseason lineup, we’d like to thank The North Carolina Sports Network for sponsoring and presenting the Fabulous 15 this year.
The North Carolina Sports Network has unique content designed to connect sports enthusiasts to the pulse of college sports across the Old North State and beyond. They have podcasts available on Apple, Spotify, iHeart, Amazon and YouTube, including the Fifth Quarter college football podcast with hosts Mike Waddell and Jim Collins, as well as The David Glenn Show.
Thank you, North Carolina Sports Network!
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2023 Rewind: Lenoir-Rhyne Leads The Way
Before looking ahead, let’s first take a quick look back at last season. When the dust settled, Lenoir-Rhyne, which competes at the NCAA Division II level, ran away with our Fabulous championship. The Bears captured a North Carolina-best 13 victories (no other team won more than nine games), claimed the South Atlantic Conference title, blazed to the D2 semifinals, wracked up a number of acclaimed player and coaching honors, and finished ranked in the national top 10.
That is the definition of “specialness” for sure.
NC State overcame a sluggish start to place second on our list. Who saw that coming when the Wolfpack was 4-3 and slogging off the Wallace Wade Stadium turf after a 24-3 humbling at Duke? But that’s what made it so special. Just when folks wrote NC State off, coach Dave Doeren and company rallied the troops, Payton Wilson became everyone’s All-American linebacker, and the Pack blazed to nine victories — punctuated by a thumping of rival UNC (which had been at or near the top of the Fabulous rankings most of September and October).
North Carolina Central (nine wins, FCS playoffs), Appalachian State (nine wins, Sun Belt title game appearance, Cure Bowl win) and Duke (eight wins despite injuries and a pre-bowl coaching departure) rounded out our top five. Each wrote their own versions of a special season for their fans.
Rounding out our 2023 Fabulous list: (6) Gardner-Webb, (7) Mars Hill, (8) Wingate, (9) UNC Pembroke, (10) UNC, (11) Fayetteville State, (12) Western Carolina, (13) Johnson C. Smith and (14) Brevard.
READ THE FULL 2023 SEASON WRAP-UP HERE>
Some Housekeeping, Then On To Our List
While the “specialness” factor drives our rankings, we do have two other rules: Starting in week two, no losing records allowed. We’ll account for FCS teams playing guarantee games at FBS opponents in week one, but from there, teams can’t be in our Fabulous list if their record isn’t at least .500.
Second, we bind ourselves to include at least one school from each of the major divisions of play: FBS, FCS, D2 and D3/NAIA/JUCO (unless that whole grouping violates rule one). If we don’t have enough schools for all 15 slots, well, we’ll cross that bridge when and if we get there. Hopefully we won’t.
One more note: You may have noticed that last year we called it the Fabulous 14 and now it’s the Fabulous 15. What gives? Upon further review, 15 is a better number and rolls off the tongue easier. And if the Big Ten can have 18 schools and the Big 12 can grow to 16, then we should be able to bump up our Fabulous list by one team, right?
OK, enough with the prologue. On to the main attraction:
2024 Preseason Fabulous 15
Since teams haven’t played any games yet, we’re looking primarily at expectations and preseason buzz to generate our initial Fabulous 15.
With that in mind, we’ll start (1) NC State at the top. First, we just want to get on the bandwagon that has been the Year of the Wolf in Raleigh (men’s basketball Final Four, women basketball’s Final Four, baseball College World Series, Wolfpackers with Olympic medals, a general exorcism of past sports demons, etc.).
But in reality, NC State football is set up to put a nice bookend on what has been one of the best sports years in memory.
First, Doeren and staff are back. You can’t underestimate the value of a program leader who has built a positive, tough-minded culture. State fans don’t have to worry about the bottom falling out even when there are true struggles on the field (case in point, the 2023 rebound after the 4-3 start).
The Pack has mined the transfer portal well, adding pieces to upgrade the offense (QB Grayson McCall, RB Jordan Waters, WR Noah Rogers). The schedule is favorable — no Florida State, no Miami, no Virginia Tech, no Louisville. More than a few pundits have picked the Wolfpack to contend in the ACC (they were voted fourth), and some have even mentioned them as a darkhorse in the College Football Playoff conversation.
If you’re a Wolfpack fan, do you put all your chips into the middle and dream big for this fall? We think so. This year could be Fabulous for the Red and White.
Mountain Top Experience
NC State isn’t the only squad from North Carolina aiming to break down the doors of the first 12-team playoff. (2) Appalachian State also has been in the conversation as a contender to grab the Group of Five’s one guaranteed berth.
Shawn Clark’s team has been picked to win the Sun Belt East. The Mountaineers have the league’s top quarterback in Joey Aguilar, who started last season as the back-up, came into the opener after an injury to the starter, threw a 32-yard TD pass on his first attempt and never looked back.
For now, Liberty looks like the team to beat in the Group of Five playoff sweepstakes. The Flames play in a much easier conference and their schedule overall is much softer. But App State can control its own destiny, hosting Liberty on Sept. 28. Win that game, put up a good showing at Clemson (or do an App State thing and actually win that game!) and run the Sun Belt, and North Carolina’s first college football playoff team could have a Boone address.
Eagles and Bears, Oh My!
Our next two Fabulous teams, (3) North Carolina Central and (4) Lenoir-Rhyne also have been picked to win their leagues. Central was voted as the favorite in the MEAC, while the Bears earned the nod to repeat in the South Atlantic.
NCCU sits in the unique position of having two favorable post-season opportunities. If the Eagles do in fact reclaim the MEAC trophy, they’ll go to Atlanta, play in the Celebration Bowl and contend with the SWAC champ for the mantle of HBCU national champion. But if the conference trophy eludes them, and NCCU can replicate what it did last year with a strong overall season, another trip to the FCS playoffs could await. Coach Trei Oliver seems like he would welcome either option.
NCCU must replace its all-world quarterback, two-time conference MVP Davius Richard. But otherwise there are plenty of pieces in place for another big run for the Eagles, our 2022 Fabulous champions.
As for the Bears, they underwent a coaching change in the off-season and also have roster turnover to attend to. But Lenoir-Rhyne brings back enough weaponry to be feared in the D2 ranks once again, including a defensive lineman who has generated NFL buzz in Andre Jefferson.
Waiting In The Wings
The next set of teams — (5) Western Carolina, (6) Wingate, (7) UNC Pembroke, (8) Elon and (9) Mars Hill didn’t earn enough votes to lead their respective conferences in preseason balloting. But all finished near the top and have legitimate league title and playoff aspirations.
WCU brings back signal caller Cole Gonzales, who directed the most prolific offense in the FCS a year ago. Some of the other pieces have departed, but there is a palpable buzz in Cullowhee that this could be the year the Catamounts dispatch of a four-decades long playoff drought.
Wingate saw its head coach, long-time chief Joe Reich, move to the athletic director’s role in the off-season. But Reich’s top lieutenant, defensive coordinator Rashaan Jordan, moves in to fill his football role. Since defense has been the Bulldogs’ calling card, we don’t expect much of a drop off here. Get to know the name Marquise Fleming, an All-American defensive end who looks primed to wreak havoc for another season in the D2 South Atlantic.
Like Wingate, UNCP was picked second in its conference (the D2 Mountain East). The Braves also have a ferocious presence on the defensive line, Jamae Blank, and return plenty from what became an offensive juggernaut by the end of the last season.
We’ve already circled Saturday evening’s Wingate at UNC Pembroke season opener on our calendars as our Game of the Week.
It may not sound like much that Elon was picked sixth in the Coastal Athletic Association, an FCS conference. Until you realize all five teams picked ahead of them have Top 25 pedigree. The Phoenix received enough votes to finish 26th in one of the major preseason polls, so they should be right there among the contenders.
Caleb Curtain is an All-American defensive back, while wideout Chandler Brayboy has explosive capabilities in the pass and return game.
Since the pandemic ended, Mars Hill has enjoyed one of its best runs ever in football under 31-year veteran coach Tim Clifton. The Lions finished 8-2 last season and came within an overtime loss of making it back to the SAC title game (and possibly into the D2 playoff field).
Landon Honeycutt, now battling for an NFL roster spot with the Browns, was Mars Hill’s version of Payton Wilson. His absence will be felt but enough returns on both sides of the ball to make Mars Hill the team to beat in the SAC’s Mountain Division (Lenoir-Rhyne and Wingate play in the SAC Piedmont).
The Best Of The Rest
The CIAA will play without divisions this season, since it is down to 11 teams (St. Augustine’s is not fielding a team this fall). That means (10) Fayetteville State will face a different path if it aims to return to the league championship game for the seventh (!!) consecutive time. The Broncos will have to be one of the top two teams standing at season’s end, not just the best among the North Carolina-based Southern Division, to earn their spot.
Coach Richard Hayes’ squad will start this season looking up Virginia State and Virginia Union in terms of preseason predictions. But FSU found ways to win in eight straight conference games a year ago, including slogging past eventual champ Virginia Union in the regular season.
(11) Davidson is our state’s lone non-scholarship team playing at the D1 level. The Wildcats have found a winning formula, though, in the FCS Pioneer Football League and should be among the top teams in that cross-country conference again. Their unique shotgun triple option offense could produce a pair of 1,000-yard running backs. Mari Adams and Mason Sheron nearly achieved that feat last season. Adams hit it, but Sheron was just a few yards shy of the magical 1,000-yard plateau.
One of the feel-good stories of 2023 was the rise of (12) Johnson C. Smith in the CIAA. The Golden Bulls enjoyed their best season in a decade under coach Maurice Flowers and played in a D2 bowl game. But the Bulls have no intention of being of that year being a one-off. There is a determination to join the CIAA elite in football and to stay there. JCSU has been picked fourth in the conference, a sign that their plan is working.
We’re not quite sure what to do with the (13) North Carolina Tar Heels. If you would have told UNC fans when they first brought Mack Brown back as head coach that the program would have four winning seasons in five years, earn an Orange Bowl berth, make an ACC championship game appearance and put two quarterbacks into the NFL (including the No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 draft), would they not take that in a heartbeat?
Yet, here we are heading into 2024 and there seems to be gray clouds over the program. In reality, Brown has brought the Heels back to what had previously been their ceiling. The problem has been that fans have hoped (expected??) UNC to break through that ceiling, especially considering the elite level talent (Sam Howell and Drake Maye) directing the offense.
In the end, UNC could quietly go about the business of having another eight or nine-win season this fall, whoever takes over at QB. The roster is fairly well stocked and the defense should be improved. Like most Tar Heel fans, we’ll adopt a wait-and-see before putting the baby blue higher on our Fabulous list.
After shaking off three early losses last season, (14) Brevard made itself at home in our Fabulous rankings. The Tornados were the only Division III team in our final ranking, using a five-game win streak in the USA South Conference to stake their claim.
Brevard’s quarterback (Ethan Beamish) and top running back (Chancellor Lee-Parker) are set to return, so good things could be happening on the mountain again this fall.
Many Top 25 pollsters reserve one vote in their preseason polls for a team they have a soft spot for. Steve Spurrier, for example, used to cast a vote for Duke every season long after leaving Durham — and even when the Blue Devils weren’t projected to win more than a few games, if any.
To that end, we’ll use a wildcard to fill our final Fabulous spot. We’ll put (15) East Carolina here. The Pirates won just two games a year ago and bottomed out on offense after lighting up stat sheets in 2021 and 2022. But we think the program is primed for a bounce back.
Coach Mike Houston has improved the roster and shaken up his coaching staff. The Pirates have significantly more experience and believe they have found their quarterback in transfer Jake Garcia. With a schedule that dodges American Athletic favorites like Tulane, Memphis and South Florida, ECU could enjoy a rebound season worthy of a bowl bid.
Outside Looking In, For Now
As we mentioned, North Carolina has 34 college football programs playing in 2024. Here are the rest of the players in our Fabulous 15 drama. How many of these schools will make appearances this season? How many can stick?
FBS: Charlotte, Duke, Wake Forest
FCS: Campbell, Gardner-Webb, North Carolina A&T
D2: Barton, Catawba, Chowan, Elizabeth City State, Livingstone, Shaw, Winston-Salem State
D3: Greensboro, Guilford, Methodist, North Carolina Wesleyan
NAIA: St. Andrews
JUCO: Louisburg
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