Johnson C. Smith went into Sunday’s D2 football playoff selection show feeling pretty good about its prospects of making the 28-team bracket.
The Golden Bulls had compiled an 8-2 record, including head-to-head wins over the other three top teams in the CIAA – Virginia Union, Virginia State and Winston-Salem State.
In the end, JCSU didn’t hear its name called. The CIAA ultimately placed just one team into the D2 post-season field, champion VUU. The South Atlantic Conference, meanwhile, punched three tickets: champion Wingate, runner-up Carson-Newman and Lenoir-Rhyne.
The snub of Johnson C. Smith had some pundits who follow Division II football shaking their heads.
“I am very disappointed,” Kris Ferguson, a columnist who covers the CIAA for D2Football.com, said during Sunday night’s playoff reaction podcast. “It just feels like a bit of a disservice and disrespectful to the CIAA.”
So what went wrong? Why did Johnson C. Smith get snubbed? We’ll consider possibilities. But first:
How the D2 Football Playoff Selection Process Works
The D2 playoff bracket is divided into four “Super Regions” with seven teams each. The South Atlantic, CIAA, Gulf South Conference and SIAC comprise Super Region 2.
There are no automatic berths in the D2 playoffs. Instead the selection committee weighs items like winning percentage against other region teams, winning percentage against other D2 opponents, strength of schedule relative to other D2 opponents, head-to-head results and results against D2 common opponents. Other performance metrics can be brought into play as well, including “top 25” wins or wins against foes with winning records.
The final Super Region 2 bracket featured Valdosta State as the top seed, followed by Wingate, West Alabama, Miles, Carson-Newman, Lenoir-Rhyne and Virginia Union.
In terms of the head-to-head piece, Johnson C. Smith seemed to have a distinct advantage. The Bulls swept CIAA mates Virginia Union, Virginia State and Winston-Salem State during the regular season. Meanwhile, the other three schools split against each other, with VUU downing Virginia State on Saturday in the rematch at the CIAA title game.
“Of all the regions, this was the toughest to predict, particularly the unseeded teams,” Chuck Bitner, national columnist for D2Football.com said during the reaction podcast Sunday. “I could have seen this going a lot of different ways … When you look at the full body of work, Johnson C. Smith looks like a playoff resume.”
Bad Losses Hurt More Than Good Wins Helped
After outlasting Winston-Salem State on the road Oct. 26, the Golden Bulls owned an 8-0 record – its best start in school history. They jumped into the national rankings. They were firmly in the conversation when the early Super Region 2 rankings came out.
But then JCSU suffered a 27-0 setback to Fayetteville State at home. The following week, the Bulls lost again, this time at Livingstone, 15-10.
Fayetteville State has been a CIAA power in recent seasons, making the league title game six times in a row. But the Broncos only won four games this year and finished below .500. Livingstone finished 6-4 overall but still were a few rungs down the conference ladder from the contenders like JCSU, VUU and Winston-Salem State.
The teams that got into the D2 bracket ahead of Johnson C. Smith didn’t have similar “bad losses.” Carson-Newman’s defeats came to Wingate in the SAC title game and to Emory & Henry, a 9-2 squad that has its own gripes about being left out. Lenoir-Rhyne’s defeats came to Wingate and Carson-Newman. Virginia Union’s only losses were to JCSU and Virginia State.
While some pegged Carson-Newman as a vulnerable team for getting left out, the Eagles did have a head-to-head win over No. 2 seed Wingate – the only team to beat the Bulldogs this fall.
Recency Bias May Have Played A Part
Alas, for Johnson C. Smith, those impressive wins against Virginia Union and Virginia State happened in September. The two defeats came during the last two weeks of the regular season, sending alarm bells that maybe this was a team in regression.
“Those last two losses had to really hurt them,” Bitner said. “And Fayetteville State shut them out. I kind of think that the committee really held that against them … They really looked at those two games and said, ‘This isn’t a playoff team.’”
Could There Have Been Brand Bias?
Lenoir-Rhyne and Carson-Newman have a history of success in D2 football. Lenoir-Rhyne went 13-2 a year ago, won Super Region 2 and advanced to the semifinals. Carson-Newman will be making its 17th trip to the D2 post-season. Every senior who has stayed four years in the Eagles’ program has enjoyed at least one playoff berth since the 1980s.
Johnson C. Smith is the upstart name in this bunch. The Golden Bulls haven’t won a conference title since the 1960s, let alone been a playoff regular.
It’s the same dilemma for “underdog” programs at all levels of college football when a committee has to chose playoff teams. This season, for example, Indiana is 10-0 and considered among the best FBS teams in the nation. But the inclination always will be to put the Hoosiers behind the better-known brands like Georgia, Alabama and Texas.
Division-less Play Created A Bit Of CIAA Chaos
For many years, CIAA football has split its schools into two divisions. Each school played all of its division rivals and a few crossover games, with the champs of the two divisions meeting in the title game.
But St. Augustine’s did not field a football team this fall, and that left the league – down to 11 teams – scrambling to adjust its schedule and championship game criteria.
In the end, the CIAA counted only the last seven games on each team’s schedule toward the official standings (some schools did not have an eighth conference game due to St. Aug’s absence).
Had St. Aug’s fielded a team this year, it’s likely Johnson C. Smith wins the Southern Division and advances to the title game – one more chance to build upon its resume.
Even with division-less football, had the CIAA counted all eight games for each school that played eight games, Johnson C. Smith, Virginia Union, Virginia State and Winston-Salem State each would have held 6-2 records. JCSU, by going 3-0 against the other three teams, likely would have won any tiebreaker scenario to earn a spot in the title game. Again, the chance to pick up another “good win” didn’t materialize.
‘Fuel and Motivation’ For The Future
It was painful to watch a video posted on social media Sunday night of players’ reactions when they learned their team was left out. Maurice Flowers, recently anointed CIAA coach of the year, took a keep-your-head-up approach.
“It’s (the selection committee’s) prerogative, and hey, it’s going to be nothing but fuel and motivation,” Flowers told the Charlotte Observer. “Because when I first came to J.C. Smith in 2022, playoffs weren’t even a thing that was thought of. To know that we’re building the program, and we want to build the program to where the going to the playoffs is (normal) – It’s a regular thing that we do.”
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