We’re almost at the “Media Days” stage of the summer football calendar, and already several North Carolina teams have found their way onto the “Favorites” list in their respective conferences.
North Carolina Central should be the odds-on pick to repeat as MEAC champ and to make another run at a Celebration Bowl title. Gardner-Webb has been pegged as one of the teams to beat in the new Big South/OVC configuration. Same for Davidson in the Pioneer League.
At the FBS level, UNC should earn a number of preseason votes to finish third in the ACC behind front-runners Clemson and Florida State. Appalachian State looks poised to contend again in the Sun Belt East after missing out on bowls a year ago. And no one is looking past Duke after a nine-win campaign in Mike Elko’s first season.
These things we know and have anticipated for months.
But what about some teams expected to finish in the middle or back of the pack who could defy odds and beat expectations, like the Blue Devils did a year ago? Here are five under-the-radar teams from North Carolina’s FBS and FCS contingent who could surprise in the coming months. Don’t sleep in this bunch:
1. East Carolina Pirates
ECU has been on a steady upward trend in the American Athletic Conference in coach Mike Houston’s first four seasons, getting back to a bowl in 2021 and then claiming eight wins and a bowl victory a year ago.
The Pirates lost a lot from the 2022 squad that drilled Coastal Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl, including long-time quarterback Holton Ahlers and 1,000-yard back Keaton Mitchell. National pundit Phil Steele lists ECU as one of the least experienced teams in the country coming into the new season.
But the Pirates have one of the top recruiting classes in the American Athletic Conference, and Houston seems to have things settled and on the right track for the long term in Greenville.
If the young skill players and a new quarterback (most likely Mason Garcia) can get established, and the defense can shore up some issues in the passing game, look for East Carolina to be one of the teams contending to fill the void left by Cincinnati, Houston and UCF (now in the Big XII) in the top third of the league.
Says Athlon Sports: “Mike Houston has rebuilt ECU into a consistent squad that doesn’t beat itself. A third consecutive winning season would continue the momentum.”
2. Western Carolina Catamounts
On the other end of the state, WCU secured its first winning record since 2017 with a 32-29 upset of 15th-ranked Chattanooga on the final day of the regular season. That gave the Catamounts a 6-5 mark, 4-4 in Southern Conference play for 2022.
Kerwin Bell enters his third season as head coach, and like Houston at ECU, has things on a positive trajectory. Western won four games in 2021.
This year’s lineup returns 11 players who won some type of post-season honors a year ago. One newcomer with award pedigree is transfer linebacker Antoine Williams from Austin Peay, a preseason FCS All-American. Also back are the reigning SoCon Freshman of the Year (RB Desmond Reid) and the third-team AP All-American placekicker (Richard McCollum).
Lindy’s Sports has Western listed fifth out of nine SoCon teams in its preseason magazine. The schedule will be tough, but still that may be too low. The four teams picked ahead of Western in the league – Samford (11th), Furman (13th), Mercer (23rd) and Chattanooga (24th) – make Lindy’s preseason top 25.
The experience factor could help the Catamounts elbow their way into the conference’s elite this fall.
3. N.C. A&T
The Aggies, a dominant force in the MEAC in the 2010s, moved to Big South Conference in 2021 and now find themselves in an even more grueling league starting this season, the 15-team Colonial Athletic Association.
New coach Vincent Brown’s first squad is picked to finish 11th in its inaugural CAA run by Lindy’s Sports. While challenging for a playoff berth looks like a stretch, there is reason to believe that this proud program can fight for an upper division finish in its CAA debut.
The defense is solid, especially the defensive backfield. Brown has three solid players competing for the starting quarterback job.
Like Western Carolina, NC A&T faces a daunting schedule. The Aggies travel to UAB in week one, then will host rival NC Central, the defending Celebration Bowl champions, the following Saturday.
Conference foes include Elon (FCS playoff team a year ago), Delaware (ranked as high as 20th in the preseason), Richmond (16th) and Rhode Island (18th). A&T avoids William & Mary, picked as a top-five team nationally, and New Hampshire, a projected top-10 squad. Still, the ’23 slate is no picnic.
“The CAA is a tremendous league. Tremendous coaches. They allocate significant resources to recruiting very talented players,” Brown said at his introductory news conference back in January. “And having a chance to look at the A&T program and the talent level, we’ll be able to step into the conference and be extremely competitive. There are a lot of talented players in this program, many talented players that I’ve watched compete against CAA-caliber teams. So I am confident and comfortable that we will do our absolute best to make this transition as seamless as possible.”
4. Charlotte 49ers
If passionate fans won games, the Niners might contend for a title in their first season as members of the American Athletic Conference. There has been a surge of energy surrounding the program since the team officially moved into its new league July 1.
Alas, many preseason prognosticators, like Athlon and Lindy’s, pick Charlotte (3-9 a year ago) to finish 14th in the 14-team conference. Phil Steele is a bit more optimistic, placing the 49ers at 12th ahead of USF and Tulsa. Vegas oddsmakers set the team’s over/under win total between 2.5 and 3.5.
But there are reasons to believe Charlotte won’t be languishing at the back of the AAC pack by season’s end. One is new coach Biff Poggi, who has already been frisky with rival schools’ coaches and fans on social media, much to fans’ delight. He comes to the Queen City from the University of Michigan, and he’s bringing a lot of upgrades from the transfer portal with him.
Says Phil Steele in his 2023 College Football Preview: “Poggi did a great job helping Michigan get over that Ohio State hump … The roster is almost completely rebuilt with transfers and almost every position looks stronger. Poggi says at his age he does not want to go through a slow rebuild and wants instant success, like a bowl in year one, and that would not surprise me.”
Wouldn’t surprise us either.
5. Campbell Camels
Like NC A&T, Campbell University shifts to the CAA this season. The Camels are picked dead last in the league by Lindy’s Sports, which wrote this about its projection: “None of the newbies (A&T, Hampton, Monmouth) look like serious playoff challengers at this point … Fighting Camels (5-6 in 2022) have never finished better than 6-5 and face (a) step up in class.”
But with the way coach Mike Minter and staff have been building through recruiting and the transfer portal, it’s hard to see the Camels as the CAA bottom-feeder, even with the jump in competition level. Amazingly, Campbell has recorded the top-ranked FCS recruiting class for two years running, picking up talented kids from football hotbed states like Florida and California.
This could be the year the fruits of all the recruiting labor start to pay off. Week one of the season will be an important gauge. The Camels host William & Mary on Thursday, Aug. 31. The Tribe, an FCS quarterfinalist a year ago, should go into 2023 as the prohibitive league favorite and a legitimate national title contender.
Among the top players to watch: Offensive tackle Mike Edwards (first-team Big South a year ago), defensive back Myles Rowser (Freshman All-American) and long snapper Jackson Hayes (FCS All-American). Campbell set a school passing yards record (2,915) a year ago.
“What you’ve got to do now is to win,” Campbell coach Mike Minter told ESPN back in 2022 in a story on his team’s recruiting success. “When you win, everybody’s listening. Then other people are going to say, we’ve got to do what they just did. And that’s how it becomes sustainable. You’ve got to win.”
