Projecting a champion in the new division-less ACC football world seems like an easy task this year:
Clemson or Florida State? Florida State or Clemson?
Has Dabo Swinney retooled his roster and coaching staff well enough for the Tigers to earn their eighth league title in nine years? Or has Mike Norvell finally positioned Florida State to overtake the perennial champs and reclaim a throne the Seminoles have held many times before?
Simple enough: A or B?
But what about the next spot on the ladder? Which team deserves to be ranked third in the preseason media balloting? Who will be ready on the doorstep if the one or both of the front-runners falter?
These are much murkier issues, without much agreement among pundits. Cases can be made for several teams to seize that No. 3 spot. But each team brings serious reservations as well. Here’s a look at the candidates who could be No. 3 when all the media ballots are counted and results announced later this week at the ACC Kickoff in Charlotte:
North Carolina (9-5 in 2022, 6-2 Coastal)
The Tar Heels bring back ACC Player of the Year Drake Maye, and that alone puts them in the conversation for No. 3. Maye is a genuine Heisman contender and a generational talent who could go among the top players in next year’s NFL Draft.
New faces have emerged in the receiving corps (Nate McCollum and Devontez Walker), and the offensive line seems solid. National outlets like Athlon, Lindy’s and Phil Steele each listed UNC at No. 3 in their respective preseason magazines.
But there is a new man calling the plays, offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey. Can he have the same success with Maye that former OC Phil Longo had? And, oh, that defense – the one that gave fans so much heartburn a year ago. Can that group stop people this season?
A top three finish in the ACC is doubtful if the Heels have to score 40 or 50 points a game to fend off challengers.
Lindy’s Sports on UNC: “Good enough to threaten for the ACC title game; not good enough to play in the title game.”
Phil Steele on UNC: “Maye headlines 17 returning starters, and they avoid Florida State in ACC play. They do face both Pitt and Clemson on the road but have a solid shot at the ACC title game.”
NC State (8-5, 4-4 Atlantic)
The Wolfpack may be among the happiest that divisional play has gone away in the ACC. Stuck behind Clemson and Florida State in the Atlantic for years, the Pack never made an appearance in the ACC title game despite fielding quality bowl-bound teams.
“Here’s the crazy part about NC State’s inability to at least take a cut at the ACC title – and its inability to even get all that close – the program keeps on winning,” Pete Fiutak of College Football News wrote earlier this year. “Everyone always wants more, but consistently winning in college football is really, really hard. Ask Florida State and Miami over the last ten years.”
A big key to success this season will be whether transfer quarterback Brennan Armstrong and new offensive coordinator, Robert Anae, can click the way they did in 2021 at Virginia. Armstrong proved lethal that season but struggled a year ago when Anae left.
Can the Pack avoid the injury bug? Can the program catch a break in a big moment?
More from College Football News on NC State: “The defense that was among the best in the country shouldn’t take much of a step back even after losing a few longtime veterans, the offense has the potential to be as dangerous as it’s been in years, and while consistency is fantastic, yeah, it’s time … There’s only been one double-digit winning season in NC State history. Under Doeren, the program is overdue to make it two.”
Athlon Sports on NC State: “NC State has won at least eight games in five out of the last six seasons and could be a sleeper team to watch in the ACC for ’23 if the offense progresses … The combination of Anae and Armstrong should jumpstart NC State’s offense, while the defense should be among the best in the ACC thanks to six returning starters.”
Pittsburgh (9-4, 5-3 Coastal)
The Panthers are the only team to interrupt the Clemson title train over the past eight seasons, winning the 2021 championship over Wake Forest.
Coach Pat Narduzzi has built Pitt into a regular upper division finisher, winning nine games a year ago despite losing quarterback Kenny Pickett to the NFL and receiver Jordan Addison to USC. Only Clemson has more wins (21) among ACC programs than the Panthers (20) since the 2020 COVID year.
Pitt has a favorable ACC schedule this go-around, avoiding Clemson and Miami. Games against North Carolina and Florida State will be at home. The Syracuse game will be played at Yankee Stadium in November, so only three true road games in conference.
If transfer quarterback Phil Jurkovec meshes with his new teammates, and the defense rises up as it has so well in the recent past, the Panthers could be in the mix to challenge for a spot among the top three by season’s end.
Pitt may be the most polarizing team among pundits, though, picked anywhere from third in the ACC preseason (Phil Steele) to 10th (Lindy’s).
An opposing ACC assistant coach on Pitt (as published by Athlon Sports): “Maybe it’s a hot take, but no one in the league thinks this program is going down just because they’ve changed OCs … This is maybe the most slept-on staff for recruiting because they’re not hauling in five stars but they’re always recruiting very well to fit their needs and culture … You know you’re going to see a nasty defense regardless of personnel.”
Miami (5-7, 3-5 Coastal)
The Hurricanes were a trendy pick to win the Coastal a year ago. But then the wheels fell off and Miami missed a bowl. Turnovers were a plague. Mistakes compounded. Coordinators left. Questions started forming around coach Mario Cristobal. He can recruit but can he coach and build a staff around him?
Still, it’s that recruiting and rich talent base that keeps Miami in the conversation for a top three finish. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke had a huge 2021 (ACC Rookie of the Year, 2,931 yards, 26 touchdowns), and he’s still on the roster. Can 2023 be a reset for him and the Cristobal era?
College Football News on Miami: “Everything else should fall into place with the improved talent and depth across the board – the big plays will come, the offense will do more, the defense should quickly overcome all of the meltdowns – but the bulk mistakes have to go away … As a program, going back to the middle of 2017, Miami is 1-17 when it turns it over two or more times.”
Athlon Sports on Miami: “This team should be much better than it was a year ago … if only because there’s almost no way Miami could have the same disastrous injury luck it did a year ago. The Hurricanes are still a few years from competing at the highest level, though, and they need to string together a few more strong recruiting classes.”
Duke (9-4, 5-3 Coastal)
The Blue Devils made news this week, just before the start of the ACC Kickoff, by signing second-year coach Mike Elko to a contract extension – and promising to provide resources he needs to build and retain a top-level staff.
Elko won ACC Coach of the Year honors a year ago, surprising everyone by leading the Devils to nine wins and a bowl victory against UCF. Duke was just a few points shy of an 11-win campaign, suffering narrow losses to Carolina and Pitt.
All-American caliber players return on both lines (OL Graham Barton and DT DeWayne Carter) as does standout quarterback Riley Leonard, who might have been the ACC Rookie of the Year if not for UNC’s Maye. Duke won’t sneak up on anyone and will face a tough ACC schedule that includes Clemson, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina and Pittsburgh (along with Notre Dame in September).
If Elko gets to nine wins again, Duke might want to back up the truck one more time to make sure he stays in Durham. Other big-name schools will come calling.
Lindy’s Sports on Duke: “Lots of starters return. Mike Elko was a home-run hire. This team plays tough ball.”
College Football News on Duke: “In Elko’s first season, Duke surprisingly went from winning just five games over the previous two seasons combined to a 9-4 record that was the program’s best since 2014. This team became competitive in a hurry. There’s no reason to expect a major drop-off with so many starters back. The difference is the level of competition. Duke’s schedule … is more daunting.”
Louisville (8-5, 4-4 Atlantic)
The Cardinals brought former quarterback Jeff Brohm home to be head coach, and the energy around the program has been strong in the off-season.
The schedule might be the most important part working in their favor. The Cards miss Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina, and play three expected bottom-feeders: Virginia, Virginia Tech and Boston College.
Mark Packer, with the ACC Network, on Louisville: “I am buying the ‘Cards. I’ve liked (them) for about the past six months. (They) can do something special.”
Phil Steele on Louisville: “(Brohm) has just 13 returning starters here, but adds QB Jack Plummer from Cal who was with him at Purdue. The schedule gives them a shot at an upper division finish.”
