For one offensive series last season, UNC football looked like everything fans dreamed it could be when NFL legend Bill Belichick took over as head coach.
The Tar Heels drove 83 yards in seven plays on their first possession against TCU, and Caleb Hood capped the impressive march with an 8-yard touchdown run.
Boom. It felt like a new era had arrived in Chapel Hill.
But over the next three hours a cold reality set in. TCU rolled the Heels 48-14, scoring two defensive touchdowns and another on a gashing 75-yard run.
This wasn’t going to be a fairytale in Chapel Hill after all.
By the end of the season, the Tar Heels had mustered only four wins and lost to all three of its in-state ACC rivals. Nearly all of the energy that had been present that Labor Day Monday night at Kenan Stadium had vanished. And questions remained about whether Belichick would even be around for a second season.
Well, Belichick is still here but plenty of questions linger. Expectations are generally low across the board, and football buzz has taken a backseat to massive changes within the basketball program, but UNC realistically should be better this season than in Belichick’s debut.
Here is our UNC football preview with the rematch against TCU in Ireland fast approaching.
📝 Published: July 2, 2026
🔄 Last Updated: July 2, 2026
At A Glance
2025 Record: 4-8
2025 ACC Record: 2-6 (13th)
2026 Season Opener: vs. TCU on Saturday, Aug. 29 in Dublin, Ireland
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Record at School: 4-8 (one year)
Career Record: 4-8 (college record), 333-178 (NFL record, 29 years)
Offensive Coordinator: Bobby Petrino (1st year)
Defensive Coordinator: Steve Belichick (2nd year)
2026 NC Football News Prediction: 5-7
Five Things To Know
1. Fundamentally, UNC should be better across the board
The 2025 roster had a number of deficiencies and Belichick learned quickly that coaching college football is a lot different than the NFL. Most pundits believe upgrades have been made within most position groups, and with a year of experience under their belts, the Heels should put a better product on the field.
2. The new OC is a solid hire – but comes with baggage
Bobby Petrino remains one of college football’s most respected minds. He was the head coach at Louisville when Lamar Jackson won the Heisman in 2016. He should elevate UNC’s offense significantly from its 2025 stagnation. But from job-hopping to personal indiscretions, Petrino can be a controversial figure.
3. The quarterback room is interesting
UNC bid farewell to last year’s starter Gio Lopez but signed experienced transfers Billy Edwards Jr. (Wisconsin/Maryland) and Miles O’Neill (Texas A&M) out of the portal. They return highly touted 2025 signee Au’Tori Newkirk. For a while, it looked like FCS record-breaking quarterback Taron Dickens was joining the group from Western Carolina. That had UNC fans hyped, but Dickens decommitted in late spring.
4. The schedule is a lot more difficult than 2025
UNC ducked some of the favorites last season but not this year. Notre Dame and Miami start the year in the top 10. Clemson and Louisville are top-20. NC State has had UNC’s number the last five years. Duke and Virginia played in the ACC title game a year ago. TCU and UConn each won nine games. Even East Tennessee State went 7-5.
5. Belichick, UNC are recruiting well
Belichick and UNC produced a consensus top-25 high school recruiting class with its 2026 signees. ESPN ranked the group at No. 14, with 10 prospects coming from its SC Next 300 list. North Carolina’s 2027 class got off to a slow start but rankings have climbed into the low 40s nationally (247Sports) by early July.
What the Experts Think
UNC’s National Ranking (out of 138 teams)
Athlon: 56
Phil Steele: 60
Lindy’s: 61
CBSSports: 78
Projected ACC Finish (out of 17 teams)
Athlon: 14
Phil Steele: T-12
Lindy’s: 14
Sporting News: 15
Why UNC Could Surprise
- Year 2 under Bill Belichick. The long-time coach has had time to reshape the roster and learn from his mistakes. He was a master at making adjustments at the NFL level.
- Bobby Petrino’s offense. One of college football’s most accomplished play-callers should provide a significant boost to a unit that stagnated in 2025.
- Improved roster depth. UNC attacked both the transfer portal and high school recruiting, giving the Tar Heels more competition across the board.
- Defensive front. With All-ACC edge rusher Melkart Abou-Jaoude leading the way, the defensive line has a chance to become one of the team’s strengths.
Why UNC Could Struggle
- Rebuilding the offensive line. Four new starters don’t usually come together overnight.
- Brutal schedule. TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt and Duke all arrive during the first half of the season. Miami, Louisville, Virginia and NCSU loom in the back half.
- Quarterback uncertainty. Billy Edwards Jr. brings experience, but he’s still learning a new offense.
- Little margin for error. Another slow start would bring intense scrutiny to the Belichick era.
The Number: 1980
Represents the last year UNC won an ACC championship in football. The Tar Heels aren’t likely to snap that streak this fall, and 46 years later that number continues to serve as a reminder of just how difficult achieving elite-level success has been in Chapel Hill.
Notable Losses for UNC
QB Gio Lopez: Passed for 1,747 yards and 10 touchdowns before transferring to Wake Forest.
QB Max Johnson: Threw for 503 yards and two touchdowns across the 2024 and 2025 seasons before exhausting his eligibility.
LB Khmori House: Led the Tar Heels with 81 tackles and seven quarterback hurries before transferring to Arkansas.
LB Andrew Simpson: Finished second on the team with 61 tackles and five sacks before exhausting his eligibility.
Who’s Back?
⭐ Returning Starters
Offense: 2
Defense: 3
Special Teams: 0
⭐ Returning Stat Leaders
Passing: Au’Tori Newkirk – 3-for-6, 23 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Demon June – 84 carries, 464 yards, 2 TDs
Receiving: Jordan Shipp – 60 catches, 671 yards, 6 TDs
Tackles: Melkart Abou-Jaoude – 47
Sacks: Melkart Abou-Jaoude – 10.5
Interceptions: Greg Smith, Kaleb Cost, Jaiden Patterson – 1 each
👀 Players To Watch
DE Melkart Abou-Jaoude (Sr.)
The ACC sacks leader (10.5) will be the centerpiece of what could be one of the better defensive fronts in the league. Abou-Jaoude is the only North Carolina Big Four player to make Phil Steele’s preseason All-ACC first team for defense.
QB Billy Edwards Jr.
The projected favorite to win the starting quarterback job spent three seasons at Maryland with mixed results, then saw an injury end his season after only two games last fall at Wisconsin. He’s steady and has played a lot of snaps, but questions remain on how he will fit into Petrino’s schemes.
WR Jordan Shipp
The former Providence Day School standout led the way for UNC in catches (60), receiving yards (671) and receiving TDs (6) last season. That production could increase this year.
RB Demon June
Another home-grown product (Jacksonville, NC) saw the field quite a bit as a true freshman, leading the Heels in rushing and finishing third in receptions. That experience will be beneficial as the offense heads in a new direction under Petrino.
Shoutout to our guys on being selected to @philsteele042 preseason awards list! pic.twitter.com/d5JV79hqSb — Carolina Football (@UNCFootball) June 12, 2026
🆕 Newcomers to Know
Transfers
Jelani Thurman, TE
Redshirt junior played on Ohio State’s 2024 national championship team and saw the field in all 14 of the Buckeyes’ 2025 contests (7 catches, 84 yards, 1 TD). Could be more of a pass-catching factor in Petrino’s new offense.
Jaylen Harvey, EDGE
Redshirt sophomore transfer from Penn State registered 34 sacks during his high school career and saw the field for 159 snaps (8 tackles) last season with the Nittany Lions.
Incoming Freshmen
Trashawn Ruffin, DL
The four-star incoming freshman (6-3, 350) earned all-conference honors four times while playing at North Duplin High. UNC was able to flip him from Texas A&M, a huge pickup for the defensive front.
Kenton Dopson III, CB
One of the highest-ranked players in UNC’s 2026 high school class earned prep All-America honors from MaxPreps. He reclassified from 2027 to 2026 during the recruiting process and also flipped his commitment, from Miami to the Tar Heels.
Games That Could Define the Season
Aug. 29 – vs TCU in Ireland
Why it matters: North Carolina doesn’t have to win but it is imperative the Tar Heels come out of the gates playing competent, competitive football. Anything less, and this season could slip off the rails quickly from a PR and confidence standpoint.
Sept. 19 – at Clemson
Why it matters: The Tigers embarrassed the Heels in Kenan Stadium last year and rumors began flying that Belichick might get fired before the next game. As with the TCU opener, UNC needs to show on its trip to Death Valley that the program is advancing in the right direction.
Nov. 28 – vs. NC State
Why it matters: UNC has lost five in a row to the Wolfpack and eight of the last 10. This is the flagship football rivalry in our state, and results here matter. A win by the Heels could cure a lot of ills regardless of how the rest of the season goes – or be the final nail in Belichick’s coffin if this year’s result mirrors last year’s 42-19 debacle.
Schedule Snapshot
🏠 Home: 6
✈ Away: 5 road, 1 neutral site
⭐ Toughest Test: A preseason top-five Notre Dame visits Kenan Stadium on Oct. 3. The Heels at least will have an extra week to prepare coming out of the Clemson game.
⚠️ Trap Game: Oh boy, don’t take East Tennessee State (7-5 in 2025) for granted with Clemson on deck the following week.
💥 Best Upset Chance: Miami on Oct. 31 – Why not? UNC has won its last five against Miami. The Hurricanes visit the Tar Heels on Halloween with a road trip to Notre Dame looming the following week. Maybe UNC will catch them peeking ahead.
👉 Explore the complete 2026 North Carolina Football Schedule, including opponents, game dates, kickoff times and results as they happen.
Recruiting Snapshot
High School Additions: 41
National Class Rank: 22nd (247Sports), 17th (Rivals), 14th (ESPN)
Transfer Additions: 20
Transfer Class Rank: 52nd (247Sports), 63rd (Rivals)
👉 Explore more North Carolina Tar Heels Football Recruiting, including 2027 commitments and how the 2026 roster has been shaped.
Three Questions Facing North Carolina
Will Bill Belichick last the whole season?
It has to be asked. This coaching hire was panned by many from the start. First year results certainly didn’t do much to quiet the murmurings. If UNC stumbles out of the gates against the likes of TCU, Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt and Duke, it is reasonable to see the pressure to make a change intensify once again.
Can new OC Bobby Petrino get the offense untracked?
It’s not an understatement to say UNC’s offense was one of the worst in the nation a year ago. Belichick moved on from offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens in the off-season and hired Bobby Petrino to upgrade the unit. Petrino has a reputation for building offenses that can move the ball with quick passing and strong rushing. But a new offensive line will have to gel to make all that happen.
Can UNC end its losing streak against the Wolfpack?
The Tar Heels have never lost more than five games in a row to their rivals from Raleigh. The program is in the midst of its third-ever five-game skid against the Pack now. A loss this November would give NCSU its sixth straight win, ninth in the last 11 tries and 18th since the calendar rolled into the 2000s.
Best Case/Worst Case
Best: Bill Belichick proves the doubters wrong, a stout defense and capable offense help the Heels pick up a few unexpected wins (including Duke and NCSU), and UNC sneaks into a lower-level bowl.
Worst: The Heels get routed by TCU in Ireland; the wheels fall off against Clemson, Notre Dame, Pitt and Duke; NC State coach Dave Doeren is smoking a victory cigar in late November and UNC is washing its hands of the Bill Belichick experiment as the calendar turns toward 2027.
NC Football News Prediction
Record: 5-7
Conference Finish: 3-5
Bowl: Maybe. Maybe!
UNC could be a noticeably better football team than it was in 2025, but the improvement may not be reflected dramatically in the final record because of one of the ACC’s toughest schedules. We’re trying to find six wins and bowl eligibility as we search the opponents, but we don’t see quite enough to get them all the way there this season.
The Final Word
The narrative around Belichick and UNC football has been mostly negative – and at times toxic – since the season’s opening debacle against TCU last September. Expectations are low coming into 2026 as well, and the sharks will be circling quickly if things don’t get off to a reasonable start.
Objectively, though, UNC should be a more fundamentally sound team in 2026. The offense should be more competent with Petrino as OC and two experienced quarterbacks in the fold. The defense could emerge as a true nuisance in the league.
Year 2 isn’t about championships. It’s about substantial progress. UNC doesn’t have to contend for an ACC title this fall, but it does have to look like a program moving in the right direction.
If Belichick can deliver that, the conversation surrounding the Tar Heels will feel dramatically different heading into 2027. If not, the pressure around one of college football’s most fascinating experiments will only continue to grow.
🔗 UNC Football Resources
🏈 2026 North Carolina Football Schedule
📋 North Carolina Recruiting Tracker
📰 Latest North Carolina Football News
🏟️ North Carolina FBS Schedules
📅 2026 North Carolina College ‘Master Schedule’ (organized by week)
We’re previewing all seven of North Carolina’s FBS teams this summer. Click a link to read about other schools. If there isn’t a link, we still haven’t published that school’s preview.
App State | Charlotte | Duke | East Carolina
NC State | UNC | Wake Forest
